Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a retrovirus that infects the cells of the immune system, destroying or impairing their function. As the infection progresses, the immune system becomes increasingly weaker, making the infected person more susceptible to other infections. Since the first anti-HIV drug, GlaxoSmithKline’s (GSK’s) Retrovir (azidothymidine), was approved in 1987, major improvements have been made in the field of antiretroviral therapy (ART). This rapid progress has been headlined by the emergence of once-daily, single-tablet regimens (STRs) such as Gilead Science’s Atripla (efavirenz/emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate [TDF]), which offer patients an unparalleled level of convenience.

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GlobalData projects the global HIV marketplace – which, for the purposes of this report, comprises nine major pharmaceutical markets (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Brazil, China) – to experience modest growth during the forecast period. This growth will be driven primarily by the highly anticipated arrivals of novel integrase inhibitor- (INI-) and protease inhibitor- (PI-) based STRs, which include ViiV Healthcare’s Triumeq (dolutegravir/abacavir/lamivudine), Gilead’s Quad 2 (elvitegravir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide fumarate [TAF]), and Gilead’s and Janssen’s darunavir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/TAF. Nevertheless, looming patent expiries of high-grossing branded drugs in the US, 5EU (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), and Japan, along with compulsory licensing and generic erosion in Brazil and China, are expected to curtail market growth.


Key Questions Answered

– How will the HIV market landscape in the 9MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Brazil, China) change from 2013-2023?

– What are the most promising late-stage pipeline drugs in HIV?

– How do the clinical and commercial attributes of late-stage pipeline therapies compare with one another, and against existing treatment options?

– What are the unmet needs in HIV treatment management?

– What drivers and barriers will affect HIV therapeutics sales in the 9MM over the forecast period?

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Key Findings

– The global HIV therapeutics market was worth approximately $14 billion in 2013, and GlobalData projects this market to reach a total of $15 billion in sales by 2023, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 0.9%. These sales are expected to come predominantly from the US market, as financial austerity measures remain a primary barrier to the growth of the HIV market in the other countries covered in this report.

– Over GlobalData’s 2013-2023 forecast period, the increased uptake of STRs is expected to drive market growth. KOLs interviewed by GlobalData expect that INI-based STRs – led by ViiV’s Triumeq and Gilead’s Quad 2 – will dominate the marketplace for the duration of the forecast period.

– The most notable barriers of growth over the forecast period include patent expiries of key HIV drugs in the seven major markets (7MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan) and compulsory licensing in Brazil and China.

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